[QUICK MOD NOTE] This post was originally posted by Lenlfc on GTAforums, original post here. ALL CREDIT GOES TO HIM FOR ALLOWING ME TO DO THIS. It's extremely detailed and extensive, but it also gives a full look at previous leaks and speculation about GTA V, RDR 2, and the upcoming GTA VI. It's well worth your read if you're at all interested in speculation and leaks for GTA VI, considering it has a lot of information about how Rockstar has done things in the past, and how they may do things with GTA VI. It also has all of the confirmed information we have for GTA VI, like everyone has been asking for. Enjoy! submitted by nitelytroll to GTA6 [link] [comments] LENLFC will also be updating his original GTAForum's post often when new, reliable information comes out that is worth adding to his timeline. TL:DR: This is very long. Please don't be mean if you think I went too far. I just wanted to be as detailed as possible, and compile as much evidence and proof as possible, so we can work out the most accurate and likely scenario. I've never done anything like this before. So please be kind. Hi. So, Red Dead Redemption 2 has come and gone. Feels like forever we waited for it. Hard to believe it released almost 4 months ago. It's that time when many of us will start looking forward to the next Rockstar game. I have been on this site since the first leaks for GTA V popped up online. In that time, I have watched fairly quietly, barely getting involved. I've read a lot, and enjoyed it all, but never actively helped out. I want to warn you all that this post will be pretty lengthy, and as I'm not a regular poster, my formating or writing may not be the best. But I'm a big fan of Rockstar Games, and have a weird fascination with remembering small things. So I wanted to try my best to compile everything we know about how Rockstar go about making their games, what they have done in the past and do some crazy conspiracy theory like deducing to try to predict when, where and how we can find clues to GTA VI, and when they may announce or release it. Firstly, I'd like to credit and thank Dan Dawkins. Many of you may not know who he is, but long story short, he's a journalist, and back in July 2011 he wrote an article in the magazine PSM3. In the article he predicted many things about GTA V (some correct, some incorrect) he researched all the available data and pooled it together, and used that to speculate about GTA V. That was a massive influence on me growing up, on how to speculate responsibly and use common sense to work out where a game or series may go next. So thank you, Dan! FACTSNow, onto the main topic. What do we know about GTA VI? Not a lot. Dan Houser recently said that they're thankful they're not releasing GTA VI while Trump is in office. While he's never actually quoted as saying they won't release it while Trump is in office, I think journalists used that for a catchy headline. But the point remains. GTA is heavily based on British satire of USA. The current political climate makes it very difficult for them to do this. If we take it literally, GTA VI won't release until 2021 or 2025, depending on how long he is in office. Unless I have my dates wrong. I'd be willing to bet they had 2021 in mind. However, my personal take on this was that Dan simply meant "thank god we're not releasing GTA VI in 2018" And knowing it'l take them years to even release their next game, Trump will no longer be President.We also know Rockstar Games will make another GTA. And that is about it. If there is anything else concrete, that we know, that I have missed please let me know. THE PASTGTA V TIMELINEHere's where we start digging and look to the past, what Rockstar has done before and try our best to work out their timelines and how they go about things. Now, in order to do this, I'd like to begin with GTA V, as that is when Rockstar Games transitioned into the one big game every 5 years, as opposed to the game every year studio. April 20th 2009 the first ever build for GTA V was created. I'm not sure if this is when development officially began, or just the date of the first build. Either way, I doubt there is much difference. They were busy working on TBoGT at that point, having just released TLaD 2 months prior. This was discovered from the Build Log. I will go into detail on this later. However this wasn't discovered until 2014, I just thought it was worth putting here to stamp the timeline. The earliest rumors for GTA V began on July 26th 2010, with reports of Rockstar researching locations in and around Hollywood. Rockstar declined to comment on this, saying they don't comment on "rumors and speculation". To this day we still don't know if this was legit, or otherwise. However the game did end up being set in Los Santos. So it was either true or coincidentally correct. Next came the domain name leaks on February 25th 2011. That date might be off by a couple of days, but the original GTA V Leak Topic has it dated to the 25th. (Fun fact, this is the leak and topic where I signed up to GTAForums!) Very GTA sounding website names. After GTA IV introduced the internet to us, it was no surprise to think GTA V would expand on that, and the domain names registered sounded right out of a GTA game. This was proven true, as the websites did appear in game. On March 8th 2011 more fuel was added to the GTA V fire, when the codenamed "Rush" casting call was leaked online. Like the website, they sounded like something out of a GTA game. This was further expanded on the 29th of March when Take Two put out a private casting call, further hinting at development on GTA V being well underway. October 5th 2011 In an Asked & Answered article, 2 users asked about the next GTA, with Rockstar replying with the following “When are we going to see a new GTA????? #bestgameever” - received via Twitter“When's the new grand theft auto coming out?” - received via TwitterAnd then it happened. GTA V was officially announced on October 25th 2011 at 12pm BST, linked below. https://twitter.com/RockstarGames/status/128788090969001984?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E128788090969001984&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fgtaforums.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FRockstarGames%2Fstatus%2F128788090969001984%3Fs%3D20 This announcement came only 20 days after saying the above on October 5th 2011 This goes to show that Rockstar can say one thing, then surprise us weeks later. The first trailer then debuted on November 2nd 2011 Everything past this point, until release I feel is not relevant to this discussion. It is more to do with post announce schedules and marketing, and when to expect news or updates or trailers for an already announced major game. If this topic does well, I could add it, or put it in a spoiler box so it's optional detail. Otherwise the next points worth talking about come into play upon release, and where Rockstar go after this. September 17th 2013 GTA V finally releases. We rejoice. October 1st 2013, two weeks after the launch of GTA V GTA Online launches. This is where it gets interesting and complicated. We know now that their next game was Red Dead Redemption 2. However, Rockstar weren't finished with GTA V. Many people claim that Rockstar stopped caring about their fans and gamers, citing images like these You can actually pinpoint the year Rockstar discovered microtransactions. Now, I bring these up, as it is important to understand just how Rockstar now operate. Love it or hate it, but GTA Online has allowed Rockstar to not release games as often. Allowing them to work on one game as Rockstar Studios, where they all work together, instead of separate teams, like Rockstar North (GTA) and Rockstar San Diego (RDR) for example. The income from GTA Online has seemingly allowed them to spend 5 years working on Red Dead Redemption 2, perfecting a masterpiece. Allowing them to make the game they wanted, and allowing them to take all the time necessary to innovate and make a living breathing world even more so than GTA V did. Some time in January 2014 the GTA V Build Log was found. Apparently it was on the game disc, and dedicated fans dug into the files and found it. I bring this up, as it reveals some key interesting details. such as the date of the first GTA V build/when GTA V development began. This is important as we can use this information later to try to work out when they may start their next project. Throughout 2014 Rockstar were hard at work developing the PC, PS4 & Xbox One versions of the game. I don't know how much work that would be, but they weren't simple upres versions of the game. They included new features and plenty of big enhancements. The PC version was delayed into 2015 for added polish. And leslie Benzies took a sabbatical on September 1st, for 17 months. The next key detail to note is from January 2016, I think. Leslie Benzies leaves Rockstar North. I feel this is important to note, as it could have delayed a lot of Rockstars plans, as a lot of staff left with him, Rockstar would go on to deal with a lawsuit which could only be an unnecessary distraction. There was a topic here on GTAForums discussing it. Needless to say the whole situation was pretty shady and the details don't really matter too much. Rockstar had also planned single player DLC for GTA V, multiple datamines suggested 3 packs, as well as Ash735 on Neogaf confirming this. We can take this with a grain of salt, but if it were made up, then it's a pretty dull and uninteresting thing to make up. They had also promised Heists for GTA Online, which was quickly becoming very popular. I personally believe (And this is where speculation begins) that the SP DLC was the unfortunate victim in all of this. They HAD to get the next gen versions out, as if you're launching an online game, you can't rely on players sticking with old consoles when the next gen consoles launch only 2 months after GTA Online launches. They had to get Heists out, which were promised before the entire game even released. More so than the SP DLC, which was just a closing line on a Newswire article, albeit multiple times. And development on their next game ramping up, going into full production, combined with the restructuring of Rockstar North due to Leslie Benzies leaving... SP DLC may have been an unfortunate victim. Article 1 Article 2 Article 3 GTA V launches on PS4 & Xbox One on November 18th 2014 PC version launched on April 14th 2015 Rockstar Games are now done with development on GTA V, now solely focusing on GTA Online updates, in terms of Grand Theft Auto April 3rd 2014 Thanks to @EVOLUT7ON for bringing this to my attention. In a Q&A with DJ Whoo on BallerStatus, he allegedly reveals he will be in the next GTA, which will be in Liberty City again. BallerStatus. And thanks to iNero for his topic. RDR2 TIMELINEAugust 2013 Roger Clark's first day on set, for Red Dead Redemption 2Roger Clark: "My first day on the project was in August of 2013. With the context of this particular installment, I was the first to come on, apart from Rob and Ben who worked on the previous chapter."4th September 2014 Rockstar San Diego start hiring for next gen consoles. They allegedly went on a hiring spree for an upcoming project. Which we would later find out to be Red Dead Redemption 2. December 11th 2014 Actor Jorge Consejo posts a selfie on Instagram, wearing a typical mocap or performance capture suit. However it doesn't match the one used in GTA V September 2015, [Original Source] Rockstar started hiring for more jobs. They seem to relate to a stealth based game, but so far they haven't released anything that would indicate what they were hired for. Then the leaks start happening... November 29th 2015 An ex Rockstar employee hints that RDR2 is their next project. The infamous “Really, Dumbass. Really? Two“ comment by Danny Ross, on Reddit. Archive of actual post April 13th 2016 the map for RDR 2 leaks on NeoGaf. This was unprecedented. The map for a huge open world Rockstar Games game has never leaked online 6 month before the game was even announced. Link to the map. October 18th 2016 Rockstar finally announce Red Dead Redemption 2, after teasing in the days leading up to the 18th. July 27th 2017 Stuntman, Tim Neff's online resume leaks that he worked on RDR2 and GTA VI. He denied involvement in RDR2, but claimed he worked on GTA V, and that it was a mistake. He also had personal instagram photos from Rockstar San Diego, with captions strongly suggesting he was there for work. He denied it, saying it was just a photo taken outside that anyone could take. He quickly removed them. He was not credited in GTA V, but by RDR2's release he is indeed credited in RDR2. Friday September 29th 2017 A reddit user posted a thread mentioning a recent leak which had been deleted. I do not know the date that it was originally posted. But it was over a year before the game released. And was entirely accurate. these leaks will serve a purpose later on. December 25th 2017 GTAForums User @Jabalous brings to our Attention the actor Jorge Consejo, his previously mentioned Instagram selfie, and his CV/Resume. Which mentions min being in GTA 6, playing the role "The Mexican" (Featured). CGI meaning motion capture work, etc. In April of 2018, I'm not sure of the date, maybe the 18th? The article has since been removed. But I copied the article into a notepad file. Trustedreviews.com published an article based of a memo and some notes about the game. They claimed to have received this information in August 2017, but didn't post it due to fears it was fake. It wasn't until Rockstar released a screenshot that matched one that they had also received that they decided to publish this information, now believing it to be genuine. Here is an image of the text copy of the article (reddit formatting issues) November 1st 2018 Rockstar sue TrustedReviews for £1M Essentially proving the leak to be true. Although the game itself proves it to be true, it's interesting that Rockstar sued for that much. Or sued at all. January 6th 2019 Rockstar start hiring for next generation Rockstar's career opening page - Credit to @el carlitos for that one! -----------------------------------------------Unconfirmed Speculation----------------------------------------------- January 30th (Specific date still debatable) Film Florida have guest Leah Sokolowsky on their podcast. She briefly mentions a recent change in her work Recently as you're aware we've had a change in the types of productions that are coming to our state. So I've also been very fortunate to get a large client that has hired me to arrange basically site tours and visits. It's uh digital media company. And I've signed an NDA so I can't disclose who it is. But they've been exploring various areas of our state, and of other states in the south east. And I've been planning and arranging those visits for their personnel and that's been kind of a very interesting expansion of what I normally do, as well.Here's the link to that quote. It's suggested this is Take Two Interactive/Rockstar Games, as a reddit user claimed on October 6th 2019 scouts were looking around his area, and asked for permission to take photographs of the building. Which was later followed up by a photograph of an alledged document/contract as proof on October 8th 2019 -----------------------------------------------End of Unconfirmed Speculation----------------------------------------------- February 13th 2019 VP of product development Jeronimo Barrera departs Rockstar Games after 20 years. This might not seem anything significant, but it's one of his quotes that I think it very important. "If I had stayed at Rockstar it would have been more GTAs, more RDRs and less of this other stuff going on out there right now." While that is nothing concrete. It does indicate that Rockstar will be working on Red Dead and GTA for the foreseeable future. That won't surprise many of us, but it's just a little detail that gives us hope that GTA is next, and not another franchise like Bully, L.A. Noire or Max Payne, for example. April 18th 2019 a former Rockstar India employee has mention of creating vehicles for GTA V and upcoming GTA 6 in his artstation resume Thanks to ApolloThunder's post. Now those are the most important details I feel. Now I may have missed some other details people might find important. In August of 2017 the stunt actor Tim Neff was involved in a alleged leak for RDR2 & GTA 6. It was quickly 'debunked' Although many believed there were holes in the methods used to debunk it. And his removal of Instagram photos taken at Rockstar San Diego was suspicious to many users. July 9th 2019 Jorge Consejo likes and quotes a tweet about him being in GTA 6 Now We Use All This Information to SpeculateThe first clues we should look for are reports of Rockstar scouting locations. We know from articles and or interviews that Rockstar take thousands of photographs when creating their worlds, so any reports of Rockstar Staff i researching locations should be a very good indication. However, they can be very secretive.Same goes for Rockstar or Take Two registering domain names or sending out casting calls. So far we've heard nothing of the sort. again, we don't always hear these things. I don't recall hearing anything about casting for RDR2 at any point between 2012 & 2016. Combined with the fact that Rockstar only just released RDR2 4 months ago. I think it's pretty safe to sat development on their next game hasn't fully begun yet, or will do very soon. If we look back to the build log for GTA V, they created the first build on April 20th 2009. pretty much one year after GTA IV released. By that logic the first build for GTA VI would have been created in September 2014, right? Well, considering they had to work on the next gen and PC versions for so long. I'd wager they started much, much later. We know that these days Rockstar operate as Rockstar Studios, all working together on one game at a time. But if the NeoGaf user is to be believed, pre production for GTA VI began in 2012, which is actually entirely believable. As Rockstar began work on RDR2 almost immediately after RDR1. "In early 2011, Dan began chatting with Rockstar San Diego about how Red Dead Redemption 2 would look and who the characters would be. Late that summer, he says, he had a “broad outline and rough flow of the game defined.” By fall 2012, his team had completed rough scripts for many of the game’s missions and started doing read-throughs on video conference calls with directors of game play, art design, and animation from Rockstar offices around the world. " Source Now, unlike Red Dead Redemption, Grand Theft Auto is not a game about specific characters, like RDR is with John and Dutch's gang. So It's safe to say after GTA V, the Housers did not sit down and come up with scripts or ideas for GTA 6 revolving around those characters. But never say never. They could use this as an opportunity to bring back Michael Franklin & Trevor, working of some of the ideas for the Story DLC for GTA V, instead of scrapping it entirely. For the first time ever, GTA could be a direct sequel using the same protagonists. This however, I believe to be incredibly unlikely. But I thought it was worth mentioning. So, they've finished RDR2. What Are Rockstar doing now? I believe they're hard at work on the PC version of the game. Many people don't believe it will release on PC, citing the fact that RDR1 never released on PC as evidence. I don't believe that is fair, as we know RDR1 was a mess, and was in such a bad state that they were lucky to release it at all. Rumours and alleged leaks stated the game was a coded mess, and they weren't willing to go through all the hassle of porting it to PC. We also know PC games typically have a high paracy rate, and Rockstar aren't fond of spending all that development time and cost on such an effort for little reward. Here's a clip of Lazlow talking about releasing their games on PC, and joking wanting to make their money back first. It's from 2010, right before RDR1 released. I think he was making a joke, but hiding the truth in there. Which leads me to believe that RDR2 could come to PC, but in order to make their money on that, also release it on PS5 & the Next Xbox, like they did for GTA V. Considering the gap between GTA V on PS3 & 360 and GTA V on PC (19 months) we could see a similar gap with RDR2 on PC. If that is the case, we could see a PC release in May 2020. At which point next gen consoles would likely have been announced, assuming Sony repeat their February reveal as they did with PS4. Or soon to be revealed at E3 a month later. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that they re release on Next gen with native 4K on PS5, higher frame rates, or other enhanced features. Next gen consoles will be backwards compatible, but if they want to keep RD Online going, a newer version with higher player counts could be a good option. Speaking of next gen consoles, until specs are set in stone, I don't think Rockstar will announce anything. Dev Kits are allegedly being sent to some developers right now. Sony first party studios are already working on PS5 games. Guerilla, for example. I'd wager Sony's relationship with Rockstar is a good bet to think they have them, too. So, what does this mean? Well, let's look at when Rockstar announced RDR2. 18th October 2016. 18 months after the PC release of GTA V, 3 years, 1 month after the initial release of GTA V. Lets assume they stick to a similar pattern, both GTA V & RDR2 were announced in October. It could be a good bet for what month to expect an announcement. However, GTA IV was announced in May 2006, with Peter Moore's infamous Tattoo. So... Now let's look at when Rockstar started hiring for RDR2, which was September 2014. It took them 2 years to announce their next game. And they had the base map planned out within 19 months. We just don't know when the photo of the map was taken, just when it was leaked to the public (april 2016). But we do know Rockstar always start with the world. For GTA V, that discussion started as GTA IV was wrapping up – almost five years ago – although the latest game has been in full production for just three years. “It comes from the idea first,” Benzies tells us in his office at the studio. “Where is it going to be set is the first question. Then that defines the missions; you’re doing different things in LA than in New York or Miami. The map and story get worked up together, and the story is a basic flow of how it works out so you can layer the missions in. Source I think we can safely say that Rockstar already know where the game will be set, and Aaron Garbut is already hard at work at creating a concept of a map. If he hasn't already. Based of that information, I'd say Rockstar are hiring for their next game, which will be PS5 and Next Xbox exclusive, Likely to be GTA 6, and will need 2 - 3 years of development before they are able to reveal it with a trailer. Putting the game at a 2021 - 22 reveal, with a 2023 - 24 release. I do believe the upcoming generation, and Rockstars desire to outdo themselves every time will only slow them down. Their games take so long to develop, and I can't see them putting out GTA 6 in the same timeframe as GTA V, from GTA IV. More likely to be similar, if not longer than GTA V to RDR2. The LeaksRemember when I said the leaks would serve a purpose later on? I find it highly suspicious that Rockstar had leaks as substantial as they had for RDR2, when they never had anything to that level before. They are usually incredibly watertight. So let's speculate as to why...The Benz.Isn't it strange how such a long time influential figure at Rockstar North was fired, and then leaks start popping up for their next game? It's no secret that there was more to his firing that we initially thought. Things went really bad between The Benz and The Housers. I think when he left the company, and many of his staff left, too. A lot of disgruntled employees may has decided to spill the beans on their next game out of spite. The entire game map leaking 6 months before the game was even announced, Epilogue spoilers down to finite details such as building a house or birthing a foal? Way too specific, and that's never happened for a Rockstar game before. I just find that suspicious.So, why is that relevant to GTA 6? Well, it may end up not being relevant at all. But then I remembered the leak from last year, that stated GTA 6 was set in Vice City. Back then, I didn't believe it at all, as it was way too detailed for a game that wasn't even announced, and wouldn't be announced for at least 2 more years. Likely double that. Plus why did they choose The Know? And an anonymous source is always suspicious. But hey, nobody would be dumb enough to give their actual identity if it were legit. But then I started thinking a while ago, at how detailed the RDR2 leaks were, and maybe, just maybe the person who tipped off The Know was legit, and the info was based of what was in pre production from 2012 [Unofficial Source]. The more I thought about it, I realized that Vice City, with the concept of crossing the border to South America is a simple enough concept that could have been decided upon during pre production (the world is the first thing they decide, remember?) Why Vice City2 reasons why it's starting to feel like a likely location. Reason one, GTA Online. They introduced businesses and gunrunning into GTA Online, and a lot of people enjoy that stuff. Vice City would be a great location to create content around that concept. I don't believe Rockstar would pick a location based on what would make Online popular, but after GTA Online's huge popularity after GTA V, they'd be stupid to ignore it. Reason 2 was the quote Dan Houser gave about not releasing GTA 6 during Trumps presidency. Again, I believe it's taken a little out of context, but it's his words about satirising America is what caught my eye."Both intense liberal progression and intense conservatism are both very militant, and very angry. It is scary but it’s also strange, and yet both of them seem occasionally to veer towards the absurd," Houser said. "It’s hard to satirize for those reasons. Some of the stuff you see is straightforwardly beyond satire. It would be out of date within two minutes, everything is changing so fast." Source Then there was this quote from Leslie Benzies, also covered in The Knows video: IGN Source Any chance that Vice City might return in a future GTA? It is always a possibility. There are a few references to the city in our current-gen GTAs so it is part of that HD universe, and it is certainly somewhere we would love to revisit. However Vice City, perhaps more than any other GTA game, was as much about the era as the setting. Miami in the 1980’s is so iconic it would feel strange to revisit the city in a different time period. exploring grand theft auto vice citys lasting impact on gamer culture with rockstars leslie benzies city cover. Of course at some point we would like to have one big world containing all our cities and let the player fly between them and revisit their favorite areas, and in that context reimagining Vice City would be very interesting. So according to Rockstar, albeit someone who is no longer at Rockstar, it would be strange to go back to Vice City in a modern day setting. If you combine that with what Dan Houser said about parodying America today, and how difficult that would be, is it possible that the next game could be set in the past? Again, combining those quotes, with alleged leaks, and the possibility for fun and exciting gameplay and Online experiences... Vice City is an incredibly likely setting. The only problem is GTA 6 going into pre production in 2012. If the location was decided upon then. It would either be a happy coincidence, or they may have changed the location. Or, it never was Vice City, and this speculation is clever, but ultimately wrong. One key piece of information is the Neogaf user, who allegedly states that it WON'T be Vice City. Citing that production notes going around when he still worked there stated possible locations and concepts. And that it is likely one of the 4 options listed in the quoted thread. Small town gta - tight stories, scheduled characters, ridiculous levels of ambience, every home interior modelled. Every building enterable. More realism - if your wanted you are on the run for a while.You have to consider that what they may have decided in 2012 changed, due to the popularity of GTA Online. They could have chosen a smaller, more detailed interactive world. But due to Online, decided they needed a larger world. Or the location wasn't right due to modern politics and ability to satarise, etc. I do think GTA could return to the past eventually. Sam Houser has an incredible knowledge of pop culture, and is very intelligent. It would work well for them to go back to an older setting for a GTA game again. That isn't proof of that, or even a solid reason for them to do a prior setting. His knowledge can be used in any setting, past or present. But it's an interesting piece of information to think about. Another possibility is Dan's words were as simple as GTA 6 won't release while Trump is in office, and therefore GTA 6 will be set in the present day, but by then the political climate may have settled down, or they think/hope things will be different by then, and what they choose to parody will be easier. i don't know. How about Las Venturas?For the past few months, I've been thinking about the possibility of GTA 6 being set in Las Venturas. It's one of the locations mentioned as a possibility by @Ash_735 It's also a location that would be quite large, although not hugely diverse. However creative freedoms could solve that. If they return to a past setting as theorised. Then Las Venturas in the 70's or 80's could be seen as a pretty cool option. Like a lot of people, I'm a fan of Joe Rogan. Recently he had a guest on his podcast, Bob lazar. Whether you believe him or not is irrelevant. But he tells some interesting stories about working near Area 51, and working on alien UFO's. that really got me thinking... Wouldn't that be a perfect location for Rockstar to have some fun with? GTA V and RDR2 both featured UFO easter Eggs. There was a lot of mysteries tied to Mt. Chiuliad and Fort Zancudo. Can you imagine Area 69 returning, and what Rockstar may do with that? Now I fully understand that saying they may do a certain location, based of nothing other than easter eggs is a bit silly, but what else do we have? However, it does tie in with the notes (Vegas 1970's Casino?). Before RDR2 we never believed Rockstar would create a game, and build of a previous games map. After RDR2, we now know it's possible. I'm still not convinced they'd do it with GTA, as the GTA series is always an island, whereas RDR1 was a landlocked location. However, it is possible, however unlikely that they could build of Southern San Andreas and go east to Las venturas. |
Questions | Answers |
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Mr. Schroter thank you so much for doing this. I am a recent graduate of University and the CEO/founder of an internet startup launching in September. Although I have created/ran a successful company during college (a gourmet food truck) I am stepping out of my comfort arena and walking into the great unknown for me (web based platforms). Bc of this, I have brought on a 3 partners who all have different skill sets in tech (one is a programmer, another is a social media expert, and the third is in charge of all tech-related problems)- currently my biggest struggle is how to allocate equity in the company. What is fair? What is too much? what is too little? Maybe its my own greed, but bc i conceptualized/found funding/ and executed the idea- I dont want to have anything less than 70% equity in my own company- leaving 30% for me to allocate to the 3 remaining partners. They are not pleased. Advice? | First, make everyone (including you if you want to be fair) have to vest their share in the company over time. 3 years is reasonable. This accounts for the inevitable falloff you'll get over the first 3 years where people quit. Second, make sure people's equity is commensurate with their market value. We use a pretty simple spreadsheet that takes market value (what you make today) and applies a multiplier to account for risk. We then use the market value of the company and say your contribution is a % of your value. |
Thank you so much Mr. Schroter, emailing you right now! | You're welcome. The invite is open to any other Founder. If I can help, I will. |
Which industries do you feel are lacking in terms of new start-ups? | It's easy to say feel good industries like energy and education. So let's take those off the table for a moment. |
I think there is still a tremendous amount of innovation to be had in marketplaces. I mentioned this in another reply about stuff like AirBnb, Zaarly, and Exec. | |
I think there is so much dormant value that needs to be unlocked. Millions of folks will retire this year. What happens to all that resident knowledge? How can we get those seniors re-engaged to teach those younger? Or vice versa - 16 year olds know more about technology than most 50 year olds. How can they connect them to teach each other? | |
I'm fascinated with what I keep referring to as "dormant value". I love to see startups find skills, value items, time, etc that is going un-used and turn it into a marketable commodity. Sorry if I'm being a bit vague, but it's such a large market that I think some critical thinking would unlock a ton of value. I've got some marketplace concepts based on this that I'd love to see someone run with. | |
Where did the inspiration to become a business man come from at such a young age? | When I was 17 leaving high school, the only thing I wanted to do was become an actor. I graduated at the bottom of my class in High School so I was definitely not destined for college or any kind of business career. |
When I was 18 I was working with a company doing resales of mainframe computers (yes, I'm old). The company itself didn't have any software it was running on, so I told the CEO we need to get our stuff together and build a sales force management app. He told me it was too expensive - I suggested we could write it ourselves. He called me out and said "If you're so smart, why don't you write it?" My answer was "I would." 2 days later a 486 PC showed up at my dorm room with a note from the CEO "Have at it." 8 weeks later the first prototype of our sales software was written - in Access 1.0 which had just been released. It was the first time I had done something successfully in business and it felt amazing. A year later I started Blue Diesel. | |
Did you have any experience using access before that or did you self teach on the spot? | I should have elaborated. I was at Ohio State at the time barely going to college. I sucked at it. I was living in South Campus but working full time during the day out of my dorm room. |
You said that you 'were not destined for college', but then said the PC showed up in your dorm room. Why were you living in a dorm if you were not at college? | I didn't have any experience with a PC, strangely. All of my experience was with Commodore products - 64, Amiga, etc. Now I'm really dating myself. |
C=64 yeah! You are one of the good guys :) | Most important tech innovation of my life - the c64. |
Would you consider purchasing my new book www.fiftyshadesofbacon.com? | I have had a career of getting my ass kicked. You only read about the successes because they make the headlines. The flops define you. |
What did you learn from the flops? | Focus is key. Can I do 5 things at a time? Yes. Can I do them well? No. I've tried like hell - it doesn't work. |
Did you ever want to give up? | It usually takes at least a year of hammering your assumptions before you know for sure you're on the wrong path. And that's if you're lucky. People who launch and in 3 months think they know the model won't work rarely appreciate how long it takes to get that answer. |
What kept you going? | Anyone can join a successful startup and grow with it. Joining a startup when it's nothing but pain and suffering and sticking it out is how you earn your stripes. I've learned far more about the character of co-workers in bad times than in good times. |
What do you make in a year before taxes? | In many years, zero. The tricky thing about being an entrepreneur is that you can make a lot, or you can make zero. You can actually make far less than zero by giving up real money as well as investing all of your savings into the company. It's a far worse downside than just having a low paying job. |
"Never, under any circumstance share with people what you have (money). No one ever asks this for positive reasons. They either want something from you or they want to judge you by that metric. The moment people think you have more money than you need, they will begin thinking about how to separate you from it." | |
I cannot begin to tell you how true this has proven to be. | |
While I agree with this 9/10 times, I think there can be other reasons. I will never ask an entrepreneur how much they make, but I have always, and probably will always want to. For me, it's inspiration, I don't want your money, I want motivation. | TI - it's honestly a tacky question to ask. Not giving you a hard time, just saying if you can avoid asking the question, you're probably better off. |
My wife told me the other day that the number one suggested phrase in Google for my name was "Wil Schroter Net Worth". Apparently the way to ask is to Google. Now I need to figure out why my own wife is Googling me. ;) | |
If founders never had any idea they were on the right path, how do they know they are doing it correctly? This seems to hint at the idea of luck playing a huge part in the the success of startups. | Luck is for people who go to casinos. Fortune is the reward entrepreneurs gain for taking risk. |
What's the most important thing about pitching an idea or company to VCs to fund? How much of an idea/company do you realistically have to have built in order to shop around for VC funding? | I get asked this all the time. It never helps to have less preparation or diligence put together, but that said, we got Unsubscribe.com funded without even knowing who worked there ($2.1m from Charles River Ventures, Draper Fisher, First Round, Ron Conway). On the other hand we spent literally years preparing Affordit.com's raise and got stomped from over 80 VC's. The funny thing is that both of those events occurred during the same year. |
What little things help you get your day started? Especially on days where you might be particularly uncertain or not motivated? Morning work out? Your favorite latte? Going over your to-do list? | I have extraordinary, off the charts ADD. Like I can't remember what I'm writing by the end of my sentence type of bad. |
So in the morning the first thing I do is open up a fresh document (I use a tool called MyInfo which is awesome) and I start typing as fast as I can. I type every idea, thought, to do, that I can possibly think of. I have a lot of random stuff in my head so it's a mess. | |
The next thing I do, once I'm mentally exhausted, is I group everything that I just wrote. I group it by "stuff I need to do", "weird ass thoughts that have no value today", "people to follow up with", etc. | |
This isn't about motivation per se, it's about clearing my head. I find that when I do this, I wind up with one or two things that are critically important to focus on. And I get to working on just that. | |
Figure that 99% of my job is to invent and create. So filtering ideas down to what's actionable is a very big hurdle for me. I even have a little markup language that I use that imports my ideas into a spreadsheet because I'm not only ADD, I'm OCD. | |
Check out tiddlywiki I use it to store all my ideas in a structured and searchable format. | R - thanks for the tip. I only use client/desktop software for note taking though since I'm often not online when I'm making notes. |
Fundable.com got quite a bit of coverage on some very large techblogs, any pointers as to how to approach these parties, or did they find you? | My typepad account is about as relevant as typepad so my apologies. |
What's your take on the usage of non-.com TLD's? | Re: fundable coverage, we worked really hard to get that coverage. We contacted hundreds of journalists to get dozens of pieces written. Crowdfunding is hot right now, but you need wins (which we are getting, thankfully). I think people assume press finds them, and I've rarely seen that happen. |
Just checked out Link to wschroter.typepad.com which covers quite a bit of useful advice, however, it doesn't seem very recent. Why did you quit keeping it up to date (the A-list D-list thing is awesome btw!)? | Re: non .com TLD's. I've bought a lot of domains over the years, and I've always been tempted to go non-.com and somehow always balked at the 11th hour. I think .co domains are awesome bargains though. |
Could you speak to the mechanics and costs of realistically and successfully starting up? In the past 2 years I have worked on an aviation portal startup and a social media services/membership startup. Both were more than the teams assembled could handle, there was no funding, both are now closed. Can one start from the ground and $0 and make it? Or was that a waste of time, wrong business model? Thanks for doing this AMA! | Most companies never take a penny of big funding. My numbers may be off, but if I recall barely 1,000+ companies got an initial round of VC funding last year. But according to Kauffman there were over 6 million companies started. That doesn't include angel, which is critically important, but gives you a sense for how many people are just bootstrapping it. |
I'm not convinced that raising money is the key to success. I've done both, and while having more capital helps, there's something about staying super lean and growing from zero that I really like. | |
I think the #1 thing to focus on in your startup is your personal burn rate. The company can last in some form forever if you can keep your own rent paid. But the moment you have to hang up your spurs as the founder, you're screwed. | |
Thanks for this so much. I want to acknowledge how valuable your time and information are. | Anytime. Happy to help. |
When you were younger, you likely put more 24-hour-pizza-fueled nights when running your startups...I assume that's changed now, especially with a family? | Wow that's a great question. It's 7:16 PM and I'm still at the office, but in the grand scheme of hours, that's not that late. I have a family to go home too though, so when it comes to my commitments it's late. My daughter goes to sleep in an hour. I want to be there for that. |
If so, how do you make up for that lack of youth/stupid energy when you start businesses as you get older? | The benefit of doing this for 20 years is that I don't have to spend 24 hours working on things to get them done. For example, when I was 22 I didn't know what the hell a pro-forma income statement was. I didn't know how to model assumptions or create a go-to-market strategy. So I made up for that lack of knowledge with raw hours. Now I know how to do that stuff. I can put together a useful pro-forma in a few hours. I can get far more done with less raw energy time required. |
looking back, what were the kinds of habits/practices/routines that you now see as being totally useless and not worth repeating by any young entrepreneur? | I don't know that I could have shortcutted any of that learning though. From the time I was 19 til about 22 I didn't take a single day off. Not holidays, Chirstmas, Sundays - nothing. And I loved it. That said, I was doing it because I was learning so much. I'm still learning, but the stuff I"m learning doesn't require those hours. |
I've learned from starting websites/e-commerce that SEO is the most important thing to focus on when starting. Do you have any tips on SEO? What you found helpful? | I think SEO is awesome although I'm not sure how helpful it is in the very early stages of startups since it takes a fair amount of time to get well indexed. In order to cut that cycle time I like to use CPC and Social to drive near term traffic to validate some of my assumptions early on before figuring out what I should be optimizing for in SEO. Some things I've learned about A/B testing - |
Also on a side tangent. I know A/B testing for better conversions are a necessary evil. Any tips on doing testing for different layouts, buttons, designs on your websites? | No one has any idea what's on the side of your big "continue" button, so don't assume they are clicking it because you've built an amazing product on the next step. They are going to click it to find out if there is something amazing there. But they are going to click it either way. So don't build a ton of product behind a button people may never click. I'm not sure how, but I just know the moment I hit a site whether it's legit or not. I design for that notion. |
Who has been your inspiration? How do you think you best inspire others? | I'm inspired daily by my wife. |
What's your take on releasing a minimal viable product (or, more specifically, beta version) as soon as possible vs. taking the time to thoroughly test and evaluate your beta before you release it to the public for testing? | The MVP is critical. Until you've got a real product in market, you haven't had the opportunity to validate any of your assumptions. Going into the market and assuming you know what your customers want is in and of itself a flawed assumption. The MVP is basically "this is the least we need to do in order to test whether we are even on the right path." |
What is your end goal? How many more start ups do you have in you? What is the most ambitious project you have in mind? | Starting companies is the end goal. Every company is another problem to solve, another puzzle to put together. I enjoy the challenge itself, not the outcome necessarily. It's my sport. |
As a fledgling entrepreneur, I made about $5,000 profit in my Internet business by working on it on the side the past year and a half. It's not a lot considering how many hours I put into it. When do I know it's ready to go solo full-time? I have car and rent payments and a dog to feed. | If you can maintain the company and continue to draw cash out of it and also have primary income, I think you're in good shape. At which point you don't need your job anymore, I think that will be obvious. But I wouldn't worry about changing up your situation if you can live comfortably and move the company forward. It's the best of both worlds. |
Hey Wil, thanks for doing this. I really like Fundable and think it has a lot of potential. What makes Fundable different from other crowdfunding sites? | Fundable was designed specifically for startups, not projects like kickstarter. You'll see us release the ability to raise from equity investors here soon which will change the face of what we do significantly. |
The problem with the rewards-based model is that most startup companies aren't compatible with that model. It's awesome if you have a pre-sell opportunity, but if you need $250k just for operating expenses like most companies do, the reward model falls short. That's when people use equity as the reward which has far more scale and applicability to startups. | |
I think we've seen a very small glimmer of crowdfunding. Can't tell you how excited I am about being part of this revolution. | |
What's the best part of being an entrepreneur? | Not having to answer to anyone. Seriously, this is the bane of my existence. In high school I was constantly in trouble because I hated being told what to do. |
You can certainly argue that we all have to answer to someone - clients, spouses, etc. And that's true to a certain extent. But there's something different about being able to wake up in the morning and say "I'm going to work on whatever the hell I want to today." It's the ultimate luxury in my mind. | |
I respect chains of command and authority structures - I just don't fit well within them. I think this is a very common thread amongst entrepreneurs that I meet. We want the world to work differently, and we're willing to put ourselves out there to get that opportunity. | |
And if it goes well, it pays well ;) | |
You don't mind being in the chain of command as long as you're on the top? | I don't need to be on top, I just need to be on my own. I'm not saying I care about giving other people orders, I'm saying I hate taking orders. |
How do you consider yourself to be "on your own" if you have investors you need to answer to? | That's well said. The investors typically had minority positions, but even then if you take $1 from someone else it's still a debt. |
All that said, we're self-funded at Fundable so we truly don't have anyone to answer to. | |
I guess this means a lot when coming to making decisions. Do you have a team at all? | At Fundable we have a team of 22 people. We go out of our way to hire people that don't need a lot of "management". People work very autonomously here and that's been our goal for all of the companies we've started. |
While the focus has been on tech startups, do you have any advice on starting a marketing consulting agency? | Well my first company, Blue Diesel became a full service marketing ad agency known as inVentiv. I don't know that there are a lot of secrets to starting a professional services company. The most frustrating thing I found was that there is no silver bullet. You get more work, you hire more people, you increase revenue along with liabilities. I kind of hated that. I moved onto creating products (web startups) because the consulting business was such a tough business to scale. We did scale to about $700 million in billings in 5 years but I have to tell you - it was just as hard at bigger numbers. |
I have a multitude of different ideas, that I obviously can't focus on at the same time. How could I differentiate between what is viable and should gain my attention, vs something that should be put on the back burner, or taken off completely? | D - I would focus on one for 6+ months and at least commit through that period. You really can't place multiple bets in pure startup mode and expect to succeed. All you're doing is sub-dividing your chances of success. |
Where have you drawn inspiration for the ideas that led to the companies you've started? Were they reactions to problems you encountered in practice, idealistic endeavors, passion projects, etc? | It's funny - they are really all problems that I heard someone complaining about (or had myself) and then started thinking "how can the Web solve that?". |
Years ago a good friend of mine who is a talent agent in Hollywood mentioned that most casting was moving to "Reality TV" (circa 2006). he said that as an agent there really isn't a good way to find these folks, since they are not trained actors with agents. I simply suggested moving that process to the Web. At the time MySpace and YouTube were relatively new. | |
He setup meetings with every major network and production company in Hollywood and we pitched the idea of GotCast.com - a platform to move casting onto the Web. We signed every major network and now a great deal of casting for reality TV happens on the Web - and a fair amount from GotCast directly. | |
Every company has a story like that - I was just listening to someone complain about something and thought "Hm, what if?..." | |
Has there been a progression in the businesses you've started? Has one opportunity led to another in a meaningful way, and have you identified your opus? | Fundable is my opus because it's literally a company that helps create companies. (we do crowdfunding for startups). |
Just about every company I've started has been in a completely different industry. What I learned is that I really love starting companies. And I have a special place in my heart for helping other founders specifically. | |
I get to spend all day talking to other founders about great ideas. If you were a sports nut, you'd want to be at ESPN. If you're a startup nut like me, you now have Fundable ;) | |
When you first got into the biz, did your age impact limit your ability to be taken seriously / get funding? | IM - trying to answer all of these - |
Would you rather hire someone as an employee or give them equity in exchange for their contributions? | I looked like I was 10 years old, so yeah, it hurt me. People thought it was "bring your kid to work day" when I showed up for meetings. |
What are your thoughts on NDAs and protecting intellectual property -- especially given your experience with the internet industry? | I prefer to have people who want to be a part of the growth of the business, not just there for a paycheck. |
Do you have any any readings that stuck with you or changed your entire outlook on something? | Robert Greene's 48 laws of power changed my life. I was a much nicer person before reading that I think. Ayn Rand didn't make me any more fun at parties either. |
If someone was to go down a similar path building web companies and developing a marketing consultancy what advice would you have for them and what would you do differently? | Re: building a consultancy - don't. It's great experience and a great way to earn income, but every single person I know that has gone into consulting would rather have a product to build and grow with. Myself included. |
I see your point but wouldn't they just steal your idea or demand a huge percentage of the company? how do you brainwash them into thinking it's in their best interest to just do the hard work and not get all the credit and money, since their building the damn thing? | If anyone that hears about your idea can simply steal it and build a better version than you can you're already screwed. I think the logic that someone is going to Mark Zuckerberg your idea is flawed. It assumes that the Winkelvoss twins could have built a better site themselves. |
What percent of cost should be consumed by Marketing? In your personal opinion, what is the most effective form of marketing? (social media, print, radio) Can an innovative idea- that represents a lack in the market- survive and thrive without an effective marketing campaign? | Depending on the business, I would pour everything I can into marketing. Social is the easiest to scale since the hard costs are so manage-able, but it's hard to get it to big scale. Cost per Click is my favorite because it allows you to tap into people you've never met before and find out if anyone actually cares about your product. If people don't click on your ads, it's often a good sign that something is missing on your offer, if not your product. |
What books, tools, or resources (software, website, etc.) do you use most/ would you recommend for entrepreneurs just starting out? | Last night I fell asleep listening to Robert Greene's "33 Strategies of War" (not recommended for good dreams). I am a die hard fan of Greene. All of his books, 48 laws of power, Art of Seduction, and even the 50th Law are incredibly insightful. |
I think using Google Adwords to test landing pages and concepts is one of the most powerful early validation tools for startups that I know of, yet very few seem to employ it. I seem to recall Tim Ferris bringing this up in his 4 hour work week book and I thought it was so on point. I can be more specific if there is a certain category you're thinking about. | |
Are there certain breeds of companies that are getting funded these days and certain breeds that are getting "no" at the door. For example, are social media plays getting love and even good enterprise document record companies getting the door shut? | The crazy thing about funding is that it's incredibly cyclical. If you were a groupon clone 18 months ago you were getting funded. If you were a hyperlocal check-in app before that you were getting funded. |
I think the myth of VC funding is that they are looking for companies with obvious profits. It's not that they are against profitable companies - far from it - but what they really care about is growth. Their entire model is based on huge wins, so if a company can't get to insane scale (even at the expense of profit) it's still a more likely hit/exit than a $10m company doing $3m in ebitda. | |
What advice would you give to someone who wants to pursue making websites more? What has helped you with search engine rankings the most? Where did you learn to code? What are your favorite books on website building/html/css/etc? Do you own all business websites or do you own some informational/review/etc websites? How do you effectively start a business website? How do you attract customers with google / marketing? | T - not sure if I can answer all of those so if there's something in particular I can focus on let me know. |
I manage classical music singers and musicians as well as classically trained actors, how can I break into an online presence? | Wait classically trained actors still exist? I thought we got rid of all of you guys when we brought reality TV to the mainstream?! (sarcasm). |
I think your online presence is critical. At this point the Web has been around for nearly 20 years, so not having a viable web presence is a big miss. You don't have to go crazy. I find that 3 - 5 well designed pages go much further than some massive site that says very little and looks half-assed. | |
I'd go to templatemonster.com and pick a template that makes sense. You can get a fully designed template for less than 100 dollars. Figure out what you want modified, then go to Elance and have someone do the work to modify it. Your total out of pocket should be $500 - $1000 for everything. It will pay serious dividends. | |
I'm so glad you're doing this because I recently came up for an idea for a site I want to start but unfortunately I have no resources and I don't know where to start. I have no knowledge of programming I simply saw a problem in my line of work and thought of a way to solve it so that individuals and companies alike will gain from it. I need money so I need investors I also need to be able to hire someone to write the site, but I don't want to pitch the site to anyone because I have a fear they will just take my idea and do it on their own. I already have a brief 4 page plan written out with the problem, my solution, and the market size but I don't know where to go from here because I am currently limited on funds as well. Any advice? | Investors rarely put money strictly into concepts unless the person with the concept has a really proven track record or somehow they have figured out how to turn lead into gold (kidding). |
Not sure if this is a tech company, but by far the best option for pulling together resources is Startup Weekend. They run a couple times per year in every city and bring people with ideas together with teams who can build them. They build a prototype in 54 hours and present it to the group. It's awesome. | |
Which was your favorite company to start and why? | I think Blue Diesel was the most exciting because I was 19 and it was the dawn of the Internet (circa 1994). It's weird to think about this now, but at the time no one had any idea what the Web or the Internet really was. I had been using my Commodore 64 with a 300 baud modem running Color 64 since 1985 so I had a pretty good early lead on online tech. Watching the whole industry come together and being a part of it was incredible. |
That must have been incredible. Having the experience of seeing something so revolutionary arise, do you see any other industries that you perceive to be up and coming? i.e. Sleeping Giant Industries. | I think the trend to watch right now is what you're seeing in AirBnb, Zaarly, Uber, and Exec. They are taking dormant assets (spare bedrooms, private town cars) and creating marketplaces to unlock those dormant assets to create value. I think there will be tons of these marketplaces springing up. I think AirBnb has created far more of a proof case for what can be done than anyone. |
Whats your personal life like? do you have a personal life or is work you life? how religious are you? do you fancy the ladies or any other vice? Would you ever stop working if you earned a certain amount of money or not? | BPS - I'm a super social guy so I'm out with friends whenever I can be. That said, I'm also a new dad so now the only ladies getting my attention are my wife and daughter. |
I read that you have ADD. I suffer from the same thing. I struggle with putting time into my business ideas. I also struggle staying focused and managing my time - I get distracted far too easily. What advice can you give me to overcome these traits? | EX - use them as a superpower, not a vice. Roll with it. Adapt your workflow so that as your mind races you get more done, not less. I have 3 screens running right now with 8 chats, email, 6 web browsers and a notepad I'm filling up. I've given up serialization of thought and output a long time ago and it's been awesome. Just try to contain the actual time spent to one project. |
How did you make this websites when you were 19? How did you learn? When did you learn? | Well it was easy. HTML was in the 1.0 spec so there were maybe 30 commands. I remember I had the entire set in a notepad doc for reference! |
I would like your advice as how to start a web company, as the most crucial and vital skill is what I am missing: knowing how to program. Since I am lacking in this particular and key skill, would you suggest that I simply polish my business plan to the max and present to VC's for funding in which perhaps I can then hire help? | RB - I never have any idea on how well companies will do in the public markets. I'm constantly perplexed. |
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